AGW-crowd : They are done

Lou “The Jew” Reed has a memorable phrase about whales in “The Last Great American Whale ” on the New York album :  “- just stick a fork in their ass and turn’em over, they’re done.”  

After having spent a couple of weeks diving into the state of the CO2 “Greenhouse” debate (AGW – Anthropogen Greenhouse Warming) and intensely “debating” the C-grader rearguard of this rapidly thinning crowd, the evidence is in, the case closed and all is set for a tragic ending.  

Facts first : Stop the presses- CO2 is actually decreasing. Roy Spencer showed a perfect correlation between temperatures and an index made up of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)  + the cloud cover. Readers of my ebook would know that the PDO and clouds are strong coolers. There’s simply no empirical room left for CO2 AGW. What’s left to do is to pin down the exact forcing of cloud cover formation by cosmic rays.

Media dynamics second : When the high priests are jumping the protest marches, you know their fork-in-the-ass  moment is near. James Hansen spurs his followers to halt coal plants much the same way as Goebbels promised the Endsieg by Volkssturm. Hansen was in Oslo last week showing pictures of his grandchildren to the Norwegian king while his temperature diagrams tipped excactly the opposite of his predictions. A royal insult if you get my meaning. So many desperate marketing tricks used, so much prestige – so much bang when the tightly blown up balloon bursts.  

Tipping point third :  The showdown seems to come with the Copenhagen climate summit this year. If the Danes are as good as beating up the climate maffia as they were stubborn in defending freedom of the press during the Mohammed drawings debacle, we could be looking at the end of the CO2 charade.  Shockingly, they could get Henrik Svensmark to make the keynote, exhibit their helplessly inefficient wind system and put on display the dirt all around coming from unscrubbed (particles!)  coal burning. If PM Anders Fogh Rasmussen could talk straight from the heart and call off this hysteria before becoming NATO’s general  secretary, he would do humanity a great service.   

Checking up on evidence in favor of AGW this week  left me singularly empty-handed. All diagrams on ice coverage, snow coverage, stratosphere temperatures, ocean temperatures, surface temperatures point to cooling. Papers claiming the contrary are easily debunked as frauds. Best of all, claimed physics behind a CO2 greenhouse is a fairytale from start to end. I’ve met microwave specialists who seem to think that the troposhere is a resonating cavity, people with weltschmerz, researchers who loose their voice when confronted with unconventional solar physics and cosmology. 

aztectotAztech human sacrifice for good climate. 

The world does not seem to have evolved much beyond the point of at least not stabbing contrarians and heretics to death. But paradigms, closed doors, character murders and witchhunt still rule academic science. But all is set for the final curtain of AGW this year. Be patient and Thou Shalt Be Rewarded. 

A global economy needs a global currency

Said Paul Volcker. It seems like a tautology, too obvious to merit further scrutiny. But you guessed it, “free market” economists and globalist libertarians manage to be against it in the standard freudian Not-Invented- Here way of human progress. This time I came over Robert A Mundell’s lectures on the subject that may be a little bit outdated when staring into today’s abyss. The proposal is coming to the G20 from Kasakhstans president Nursultan Nasarbaijev, handily enough for the Darlings (finance ministers) preparing for the summit to probably dismiss it in silent contempt.   

flatlander12

Can the Jack Of Hearts be tempted into looking up into  the 3rd dimension blue sky from his 2-dimensional flat loosing poker game ? 

I find it utterly fascinating that the trillion dollar masters heavily decorated from “business schools” are not able to learn the obvious lessons from multidimensionality in dynamic ecosystems.  

  • The Columbian egg is simply to have a payment system for honest trade freed from the financial sector’s blood sucking. When the Baltic Dry Index drops 95% and bankers can’t perform their elementary duty of passing along the venerable letter of credit, global trade clogs up. There may of course be other structural reasons for slowing real economic activity but let’s at least rid the basic pipes of dirt.
  • There’s absolute no doubt that eliminated currency risks and a drive towards global prices help out the most disadvantaged nations, establish anti-inflationary forces, inspire transparent pricing power and fair trade. At a time of protectionist contraction, there’s no better oil for lubricating.  
  • A global currency is not to be viewed as a substitute to your national or regional money but as a complement.  This is a key insight. It means that the Terra, as Bernard Lietaer would call it, can act as a stabiliser to dollars, euros, yens and reminbis. The Nordic countries today are stable islands in the storm, thanks to being able to float the local currencies. Yes, they have fallen 40% against the dollar but Norway and Sweden are still very much exporting, a fact that partly makes up for this loss.
  • What happens when the barril is quoted in Terras ? The Americans would have another bell tolling for them to get their act together on energy. As far as the Terra being universal and apolitic, Iran and Russia would probably benefit both from the stability and the revenue streams of Terras. The Sterling and the City of London could be victim of Terra. So what ? The English need to get their act together in more areas than energy anyway. 

globeThe Terra can be put  to work by some clicks on a computer. It may be the rescue line of the real economy globally. Let normal working people convert their local currency savings into the Terra. Let the bankers clean up their own quagmires.

Thought experiment : The Torro

So Bernard Lietaer proposes a new global currency, the Terra, to be backed by a basket of  stable commodities. The Terra should ease currency risks, facilitate international trade, underwrite long term investement and leverage large scale infrastructure. 

What is a basket of stable commodities ? Oil yoyos, uranium is a thin market, rare earth metals are close to monopoly, steel could be locked in and unrecyclable if designed into transcontinental gas pipelines and railways, Lithium will run out if tried on a natural scale for battery cars. Meaningless biofuels distorted food markets.

Now all of the commodities above would have done better as a basket anchor than Wall Street crooks, national money printing and – gold, respectively. Wall Street greed itself is a large part of the problem we’re in. At the current rate of printing tailspin and Black Hole banking, pls show me a solid reasoning that we’re not headed towards another Great Depression – or the Mother Of All Inflations. As for printing, both Benjamin Franklin printing Continental Scrip and Abraham Lincoln churning out Greenbacks did quite well.  Ol’ Honest Abe financed the hemorraghing  Civil War, kicked bankers’ ass and supported an uninterrupted industrial boom with only 30% inflation on the dollar – not bad. For those of you still fancying gold, pls understand that gold does not do the trick. There’s too little of it and people are too psychologically attached to it.  Gold currency leads to Scrooge economics, modern slavery so to say and a too tight emphasis on so-called property rights. On this subject, pls consult The Gridlock Economy to see how philosophical principles extended to large scale undermine optimal development – a sort of anti-commons for the common worse.

Let’s introduce global thorium Th reserves to back a global currency, The Torro. OECD’s Red Book reports 6 million tons Th. When countries start updating their inventories, there will probably be at least 15 million tons because Th is 3x more geochemically abundant than uranium. A couple of truly unique geological formations, volcanoes in Norway and Namibia (I think it is), could contain rare earths and Th deep down int0 the crust for kilometers. Suppose there’s a universally accepted commodity method for turning Th into kWhs (the molten salt piping) and set a global kWh-price of 0.03€. Do your math and discover that global thorium generate future revenue streams of  at the order of ~ 1 million trillions € – when Th is allowed to account for some %s of the kWh !

That’s not so bad compared to the CDS derivates that commercial banks owe to the shadow banking system – or the other way around was it – Last I looked these Collateral Damage Sheets , as sarcastics call them, totalled 100 trillion $ – 1000 times less the Th mountain.

torroAnd by the way, the Th mountain is real. It can’t be sliced into risk and it’s premium, it will increase nicely and slowly in value as people pay more for the kWh and discover some more of it. The only valuable use of Th would be for kWh production. Costs for mining, purification, storage and molten salt reactors are like oil infrastructure to oil – ie nothing in comparison. It’ so much of it that high speed rails across Eurasia and hydrogen production for global car fleet should be a piece of cake. Even George Soros wouldn’t speculate against the Torro nor could Hank Paulson pull rabbits out of his bald head.

Ecosystem stability

I’ve been fighting to come up with the correct line of reasoning to fix the financial shambles.  The crises is probably more severe than both current “free market” economists can imagine and the general public can grasp. You shouldn’t provoke competent historians’ wrath by saying that the financial crises of 2008 is the worst ever. Next book on the line should by the way be Niall Ferguson’s account of the history of money, finance and its crashes.

Stealing yourself after Fergusons guidance through the Tulip crash and the Great Depression, you could start tinkering with how to end this comedy of never-ending boom and bust. History gives a massive negative outlook on ever coming up with a watertight scheme of robust checks and balances in the money buisness. Until now

Enter Bernard Lietaer. He’s a, may I respectfully remind my humble audience, an electrical engineer who made a career in money trading. He was a key figure in the flawless introduction of the €. (Here some might say that those Greeks and Italians profited by increasing the espresso tenfold. But if you’re going to Rome, getting fleeced is part of the joy anyway.)

Mr Bernard Lietar not only administers a remedy to the crises, he’s also a beautiful read and explains the simple mechanisms behind reason and mania.

Mathematical observation : Once over the critical slope on a one dimensional curve, forces for pulling back to a unstable eliquibrium are not sufficient. 

Translation to current situation : Once defaults gather momentum, all money ( and credit..  and assets)  created into existence by bank computers will be wiped out.

Terminal consequence : Possibly stone age

Solution : Introduce parallel currencies.

Why : Because multiple dimensions  automatically introduce inherent  systemic stability.  

Analogy : Ecosystems and biologic complexity

How to proceed : Just give bankers the choice between the chair (the electric, my inference) and cooperation in introducing new currencies

Empirical proof of concept : Switzerland from 1934 to now

How many and what kind of currencies : Everything that goes by geography, trade, profession, barter and scale..   Remember that free market ? 

Software : OpenSource, ready to rig   Messieurs, create your money online

The Terra : Global currency backed by a basket of stable commodities 

Key : Time is of the essence.  

Link : http://www.lietaer.com/crisis2008.html

food_web_600

  Replacing finance predators with autostabilising multiple currencies

Ski nostalgia

So the world championchips in Nordic skiing in Liberec, Tcheckia is over. As a crosscountry aficionado, it’s easy to see that the current format has failed. Masstart, skiskating and crow jumping were introduced, they said, because audience was dwindling and sponsor money dried up. But organising 50km goose walk in dirty wet snow in a small ditch in nowhereland is not a success.

I’m old enough to remember the jumping competitions where body control, grace, straight backs and collected arms and legs won the day instead of a couple of meters extra. Classical style jumping was not so  sensitive to wind, needed real muscles instead of skinny teenagers and was a joy to watch. 

wirkolaBjørn Wirkola the master. The last jumping competition worth watching was the Norwegian National Championships in 1982.

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Then the Swede Jan Bokløf destroyed a 100 year old tradition introducing crow style.  Why not extend to a synchronised crow flight ?

This bullshit carried the day since nations without ski jumping traditions suddenly could compete with crazy fearless babyfaces.

 

Worse, skate style is a little faster than classical crosscountry. That was enough for it to make headway in the schedule. You might say skating is more fair because the fine art of waxing doesn’t get a say in the outfall but we, the people, argue of course the contrary. But the main argument is that speed skating is an established sport on its own merits  where enormous thigh muscles are favoured over a balanced stomach and back structure.

Skating in combination with masstart is obviously a parody. For those of us who have done a dozen of Vasa ski races, we know the ultimate madness of having dozens  of elite trained athlets hunt each other on a narrow track skate style. These competitions are of course not at all fair because it heavyly favours sprinters instead of endurance which crosscountry is all about. 

masstart

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

One man from Kenya or Brazil can create havoc and the whole thing turns into a charade.  Same things can be said for cycling but here the tradition is different. And there’s more room for parallell front runners. 

Let’s get back to the days of legendary individual performers. Today Daniel Thynell won the Vasa race grand style on his own merits. However many of today’s champions say that former crosscountry  kings were tougher than them. Nils Karlsson MoraNisse with 9 victories was probably the ultimate ironman. When corrections are made for tracks, conditions and equipment, Moranisse would have clocked 90km in less time than Thynell’s 4hrs 10mins  today.   

moranisse 

 They say his legendary pace came from a life time of manual timber labour.